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Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
[版面:棒球][首篇作者:zzphzz] , 2016年11月01日15:34:09 ,857次阅读,15次回复
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zzphzz
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发信人: zzphzz (zzphzz), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov  1 15:34:09 2016, 美东)

现在只能希望不会变成导致Indians输掉这个系列的错误.

但Indians输掉这个系列的可能性现在其实非常大.

NL无代打, 在cubs打线实力占优的情况下, 其实是对Indians有利的.

回到cleveland, cubs打线的优势反而会更明显.

今天, 少休息一天的Tomlin去对Arrieta, 会非常困难.

感觉Tomlin今天能挺5局就完成任务, 但可能性不大.

而且如果Arrieta还是第二场的状态, game over.

至于第七场, 上次先发投WS 1, 4, 7应该是Schilling, 但第7场他下场的时候球队也是
落后的. MadBum WS也投了三场, 第7场不是先发, 就已经是神迹了. 很大的可能性是坐
等Kluber悲剧, Indians悲剧, Cleveland悲剧.




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lingsha
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发信人: lingsha (Go Cards), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov  1 16:23:22 2016, 美东)

5,6场bauer和tomlin上谁差球不多,关键是cubs打线能否睡醒

【 在 zzphzz (zzphzz) 的大作中提到: 】
: 现在只能希望不会变成导致Indians输掉这个系列的错误.
: 但Indians输掉这个系列的可能性现在其实非常大.
: NL无代打, 在cubs打线实力占优的情况下, 其实是对Indians有利的.
: 回到cleveland, cubs打线的优势反而会更明显.
: 今天, 少休息一天的Tomlin去对Arrieta, 会非常困难.
: 感觉Tomlin今天能挺5局就完成任务, 但可能性不大.
: 而且如果Arrieta还是第二场的状态, game over.
: 至于第七场, 上次先发投WS 1, 4, 7应该是Schilling, 但第7场他下场的时候球队也是
: 落后的. MadBum WS也投了三场, 第7场不是先发, 就已经是神迹了. 很大的可能性是坐
: 等Kluber悲剧, Indians悲剧, Cleveland悲剧.




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K307
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发信人: K307 (homesick), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov  1 16:45:49 2016, 美东)

不上宝儿
也没谁可上了不是
其实我觉得可以再试试那个乳鸡

【 在 zzphzz (zzphzz) 的大作中提到: 】
: 现在只能希望不会变成导致Indians输掉这个系列的错误.
: 但Indians输掉这个系列的可能性现在其实非常大.
: NL无代打, 在cubs打线实力占优的情况下, 其实是对Indians有利的.
: 回到cleveland, cubs打线的优势反而会更明显.
: 今天, 少休息一天的Tomlin去对Arrieta, 会非常困难.
: 感觉Tomlin今天能挺5局就完成任务, 但可能性不大.
: 而且如果Arrieta还是第二场的状态, game over.
: 至于第七场, 上次先发投WS 1, 4, 7应该是Schilling, 但第7场他下场的时候球队也是
: 落后的. MadBum WS也投了三场, 第7场不是先发, 就已经是神迹了. 很大的可能性是坐
: 等Kluber悲剧, Indians悲剧, Cleveland悲剧.



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K307
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发信人: K307 (homesick), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov  1 20:56:21 2016, 美东)

Tomlin还是靠不住
上来就掉三分
【 在 K307 (homesick) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不上宝儿
: 也没谁可上了不是
: 其实我觉得可以再试试那个乳鸡



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K307
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发信人: K307 (homesick), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 00:06:12 2016, 美东)

这下拖入第七场就很难说了
什么都有可能发生
不过从历史数据上看
貌似主场占便宜
【 在 K307 (homesick) 的大作中提到: 】
: Tomlin还是靠不住
: 上来就掉三分



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Gentry
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发信人: Gentry (而今迈步从头越), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 02:11:15 2016, 美东)

最大的错误我认为是没有全力拼第五场。记得2:3落后时,有一局INDIANS一人出局,
一人在三垒,这时候应该触击抢分的,把比分扳平后,士气就不一样了。CUBS也会亚历
山大。

期待明天KLUBER雄起,SHUT DOWN对手五局,然后MILLER, SHAW等收官。

CUBS应该是第三场的投手,INDIANS应该可以得一些分的。

总之第七场真是什么都有可能,就象骑士对勇士一样。


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Gentry
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发信人: Gentry (而今迈步从头越), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 02:18:59 2016, 美东)

再看了一下,第三场INDIANS是1:0赢的,对方投手也很强,应该投第七场,那真不好
说啊。
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lingsha
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发信人: lingsha (Go Cards), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 05:55:29 2016, 美东)

1out runner at 3rd, you want to bunt?
Are you sure what do you mean?

【 在 Gentry (而今迈步从头越) 的大作中提到: 】
: 最大的错误我认为是没有全力拼第五场。记得2:3落后时,有一局INDIANS一人出局,
: 一人在三垒,这时候应该触击抢分的,把比分扳平后,士气就不一样了。CUBS也会亚历
: 山大。
: 期待明天KLUBER雄起,SHUT DOWN对手五局,然后MILLER, SHAW等收官。
: CUBS应该是第三场的投手,INDIANS应该可以得一些分的。
: 总之第七场真是什么都有可能,就象骑士对勇士一样。




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Gentry
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发信人: Gentry (而今迈步从头越), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 08:39:33 2016, 美东)

Yes, bunt to first base direction. 3rd base runner may need to start running
early, like stealing a base. The batter has to touch the ball no matter
what kind of pitch it is, otherwise the 3rd base runner is in danger.

We played like this in college. However, this is not popular in MLB, maybe
they think an outfield fly ball could do the same. Most of time, I saw the
batter was strike out. 

【 在 lingsha (Go Cards) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1out runner at 3rd, you want to bunt?
: Are you sure what do you mean?



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K307
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发信人: K307 (homesick), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 11:56:55 2016, 美东)

难度真的有点大
在大联盟,但凡有点打击能力的,这种情况还是会选择高飞牺牲打比较保险吧

【 在 Gentry (而今迈步从头越) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes, bunt to first base direction. 3rd base runner may need to start
running
:  early, like stealing a base. The batter has to touch the ball no matter
: what kind of pitch it is, otherwise the 3rd base runner is in danger.
: We played like this in college. However, this is not popular in MLB, maybe
: they think an outfield fly ball could do the same. Most of time, I saw the
: batter was strike out. 



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HALO3
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发信人: HALO3 (master chief), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 13:43:09 2016, 美东)

被接杀怎么得分?

【 在 K307 (homesick) 的大作中提到: 】
: 难度真的有点大
: 在大联盟,但凡有点打击能力的,这种情况还是会选择高飞牺牲打比较保险吧
: running



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Nehalem
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发信人: Nehalem (Nehalem), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 13:44:42 2016, 美东)

3 out之前,接球后都可以跑垒
sacrifice fly没听说过?


【 在 HALO3 (master chief) 的大作中提到: 】
: 被接杀怎么得分?



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发信人: springc (阿泉), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 17:50:56 2016, 美东)

Also depends on defense's strategy.
If infields plays in, then it reduces the bunt chances.
For discussion of defense strategy in this situation, read this:
https://jugssports.com/Coaches_Corner/various_pdf_files/Coach_Jack/Jugs_
Sports_Runner_On_Third_Base_One_Out.pdf

【 在 K307 (homesick) 的大作中提到: 】
: 难度真的有点大
: 在大联盟,但凡有点打击能力的,这种情况还是会选择高飞牺牲打比较保险吧
: running



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发信人: springc (阿泉), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov  2 17:55:53 2016, 美东)

From this answer, the suicide squeeze is the worst option unless your hitter
happens to be really bad.  Of course that is just an opinion.

There are five basic strategies when there is a runner on 3rd and less than
2 outs (1-0 doesn't matter much). Provided its a tie game or you are down by
one.

The riskiest is the suicide squeeze. This is a decent percentage play, but
comes with a good amount of risk. The batter bunts the ball and as the ball
is pitched the runner on third breaks for the plate. The batter must get the
bat on the ball or the play becomes a straight steal of home which requires
a good bit of luck (or panache on the part of the runner) to pull off.
Similar to the first, the safety squeeze is another option. This play is
very similar to the squeeze bunt, but the runner waits until the batter has
the bunt down to commit to going home. If the opposing team elects to go to
first with the ball, the runner is usually safe, but if the fielder goes
home, it's a much lower percentage play than a squeeze with a successful
bunt. In general squeeze plays are desperate attempts when there is no other
hope (generally a terrible batter is up). Article here goes more in depth.
The most conventional option here is the sacrifice fly. In this play the
batter attempts to hit a fly ball deep enough to score the runner from third
(the runner is allowed to tag the base and advance if the ball is caught
and there aren't 3 outs). The problem here is that trying to hit a sac fly
isn't actually something hitters have much control over.
For a lot of hitters, hitting a deep fly ball isn't a great option (they
just don't have the power or that's simply not their game). In this case, a
sharp grounder to the right side of the infield may lead to the run that
they need. Usually when there is a runner on third and the game is very
close, the infield will play in on the grass, this provides them with ample
opportunity to throw the ball home, but leaves them susceptible to well hit
grounders getting through to the outfield scoring hte runner. Again, this
isn't necessarily something hitters have a huge amount of control over.
The last option is actually the best in a late and close situation if you
are down a run. That is simply to change nothing about your approach. Here's
the thing, if there are fewer than 2 outs, there is a runner on third, just
simply taking a normal approach leaves you with a run expectancy of between
1.43 (0 out), and .989 (1 out). The odds of scoring a single run are
between 85% (1 out) and 67%.
So from the fact that squeezes are high risk, relatively low reward (back
yourself out of a potential big inning or worse any run scoring situation at
all) and the fact that how you hit the ball is something of a crapshoot,
the absolute best thing you can do is...rely on your hitters to do their
jobs.

The truth is, with an average ML hitter at bat (or even any hitter above
replacement level one to be honest), your best bet is actually to just let
them bat. You'll score about 1 run per inning in a situation with a runner
on third and 1 out. That's not a guarantee, but that's probably about as
close as you come in baseball.



http://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/5113/what-are-the-best-strategies-for-a-game-winning-run-with-1-out-and-a-runner-on-3



【 在 Gentry (而今迈步从头越) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes, bunt to first base direction. 3rd base runner may need to start
running
:  early, like stealing a base. The batter has to touch the ball no matter
: what kind of pitch it is, otherwise the 3rd base runner is in danger.
: We played like this in college. However, this is not popular in MLB, maybe
: they think an outfield fly ball could do the same. Most of time, I saw the
: batter was strike out. 



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cards
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发信人: cards (cardinals), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov  3 11:27:05 2016, 美东)

昨晚小熊搞了一个,悲剧了

【 在 Gentry (而今迈步从头越) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes, bunt to first base direction. 3rd base runner may need to start
running
:  early, like stealing a base. The batter has to touch the ball no matter
: what kind of pitch it is, otherwise the 3rd base runner is in danger.
: We played like this in college. However, this is not popular in MLB, maybe
: they think an outfield fly ball could do the same. Most of time, I saw the
: batter was strike out. 



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springc
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发信人: springc (阿泉), 信区: Baseball
标  题: Re: Indians第五场上Bauer个人认为是个错误
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov  3 15:07:44 2016, 美东)

Yes.  And Cleveland had one on bottom 3rd.  One out one on third.  They
swing as normal.  Got an RBI single.  Then 2 on with one out.  Potential
with a big inning.

Chicago had runners on corners with one out on top of 4th.  Got 2 scored. 
【 在 cards (cardinals) 的大作中提到: 】
: 昨晚小熊搞了一个,悲剧了
: running



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